I'm backing Bate Borisov to win or draw at 30 October 2026 at 18:00. Arsenal sit 13th in the table with 24 points and a goal difference of 24:44. Bate are one place below with 21 points and 19:33. Both teams are in the lower half and both need points, but Arsenal's defensive record is the real problem here. They've shipped 44 goals in 26 matches—11 more than Bate—and that gap matters more than their slight edge in the standings.
I see Arsenal as the weaker side despite playing at home. They haven't won in five matches, drawing 0-0 with Dnepr and Baranovichi before losing to Minsk Dynamo, Brest Dynamo, and ML Vitebsk 5-1. In their last three league games, they haven't scored at all. That's not a team I trust to hold a lead, and it's not a team I trust to win.

