AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen Prediction

I'm backing Groningen to stay within 1.5 goals here, and I think AZ's four-game winless run makes their home favourite status harder to trust. AZ remains the better side, but they've scored once in their last two matches and created chances they couldn't finish. Against Ajax, Wesley Hoedt headed dangerously from a corner and Mex Merdink stood alone in front of the keeper—both times Mark-André ter Stegen saved them. Against Twente, AZ kept it level into the final stretch but wasted their own openings. Groningen, meanwhile, scored twice against Ajax, twice against NEC, and twice against Sparta. Their defence is leaky—ten goals conceded in three games—but their attack finds space between the lines and punishes mistakes. I expect both teams to create chances on 8 November 2026 at 18:45.

Form and H2H

I've looked at AZ's last ten matches: three wins, two draws, five losses, averaging 1.10 goals for and 1.20 against. Groningen in the same period won twice, drew three, lost five, but scored 2.00 per game while conceding 2.40. The head-to-head record between these sides is mixed—AZ won 3-0 in 2011 and 2-0 in 2014, but Groningen took a 1-0 win in 2013 and a 2-1 victory in 2014. I see a pattern where Groningen can hurt AZ on the counter, especially when AZ push their defence higher to chase the game.

Best bet

I'm taking Groningen +1.5 Asian Handicap at 4.7 on 1xBet. I rate this at around 70 per cent probability, and anything above 1.43 is worth playing. AZ will likely score—they're at home and Groningen's back line is porous—but I don't expect a rout. Groningen scored in three straight matches before this fixture and their attacking shape creates real danger. One goal for Groningen keeps them in the handicap; two goals and they're winning outright. I'm comfortable with the away price here because I trust Groningen's offensive threat more than I trust AZ's finishing after two blanks.

Odds to watch

I'd also consider Both Teams to Score at 1.45 on 1xBet. Groningen conceded ten goals in three games and AZ will create openings at home, but Groningen's attack is sharp enough to punish the gaps. The Over 2.5 sits at 1.38, which is short, and I prefer the BTTS angle. If you want to pair my main pick with a goal line, the Under 2.5 is 2.94—that's a safer hedge if you think AZ's precision stays poor and Groningen's mistakes hold them to one goal.