Club Tijuana vs Puebla Prediction

I'm backing Puebla not to lose on 17 October 2026 at 06:05. Both teams sit on 15 points, so this match matters for the fight to stay in the upper half of the table. Tijuana's defensive lapses give Puebla real chances to take something from this game, and I see value in playing the double chance on the away side.

Tijuana scored seven goals in their last five matches but conceded seven as well. That's the pattern I'm tracking: they're dangerous going forward but leak goals at the back. Puebla, meanwhile, has won once, drawn twice, and lost twice in their last five Liga MX games. They beat Necaxa away 1-0, drew 1-1 with Leon and Atlante, then lost to Tigres and Toluca. I like how they grind out results even in tough spots.

Form and H2H

I've looked at the head-to-head record between these two. Puebla won 1-0 away at Tijuana in February 2020, and that's the kind of defensive performance I expect from them again. The most recent encounters show they can score—there was a 4-3 finish in one of their meetings—but I'm not counting on a shootout this time.

My concern with Puebla is their output: just three goals in five games. Tijuana's instability in defence is the flip side of that coin. I'm not chasing the over 2.5 because Puebla's cautious approach makes low-scoring draws their bread and butter. The away side's last-10 record shows three wins, two draws, and five losses, averaging 1.10 goals for and 1.59 against. That's tight defending, which suits my pick.

Best bet

I'm taking Puebla not to lose at 1.68 on 1xBet. The double chance covers a win or a draw, and I rate this at around 60% probability—well above the break-even line. Puebla's defensive discipline and Tijuana's leaky backline make this the right play for me.

I'll also consider Both Teams Score at 1.68 yes if I want to layer in Tijuana's attacking threat. Tijuana's seven goals in five games show they can score, and Puebla's 1.10 average for means they're capable too. But my primary ticket is the no-loss on Puebla.

Odds to watch

The home win sits at 1.77 on 1xBet, and I'm not interested. Tijuana's defensive record doesn't support backing them as favourites. The draw is 3.74, which is fair value if you want to isolate that outcome, but the double chance on Puebla at 1.68 gives me better odds for the same general direction.

Over 2.5 goals is 1.74, and I'm staying away. Puebla's three goals in five games and Tijuana's mixed attacking form suggest this stays under. The Asian Handicap -0.25 on Tijuana at 1.51 is tempting if you lean home, but I see more value in the away side's resilience. I'm sticking with Puebla not to lose.