I'm backing Córdoba 2-1 Ceuta on 7 November 2026 at 20:30. Córdoba have the firepower to win this, and Ceuta's defence is in freefall. The hosts drew 2-2 with Celta Vigo B last time out and are sticking to their attacking shape. Their last three home matches averaged 1.67 goals scored, and their xG of 2.26 at home tells me they're creating real chances. Ceuta lost 2-0 to Sporting Gijon and have now lost four straight. I see a Córdoba win with goals at both ends.
Form and H2H
Córdoba's last ten matches show four wins, one draw, and five losses at home, averaging 1.50 goals for and 1.80 against. I'm encouraged by their attacking output despite missing Alex Martin and Isma Ruiz to suspension. Victor Sanchez came off the bench to score against Celta and should push for a start here. Ceuta have won two, drawn two, and lost six in their last ten away, averaging just 1.10 goals for and 1.80 against. I've flagged their defensive collapse as the key issue: they've conceded 2.00 goals per game in their last four away matches and haven't kept a clean sheet in their last ten games across all competitions.
Best bet
I'm taking Córdoba 2-1 Ceuta at the correct score. Córdoba create enough at home and Ceuta's backline is broken. I'll also consider Over 2.5 Goals in this match because I expect Córdoba to score at least twice and Ceuta to add one on the break or set piece. Both Teams to Score appeals to me as well given Ceuta's attacking moments and Córdoba's defensive frailties.
Odds to watch
I'm monitoring the goal markets closely. Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score both look solid given the form I've outlined. Córdoba's attacking threat combined with Ceuta's inability to defend makes this a high-scoring fixture in my view. I'd also watch Córdoba Over 1.5 Goals as a standalone bet since I expect them to breach Ceuta multiple times at Estadio Nuevo Arcángel.

