CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv Prediction

I'm backing CSKA Moscow to win this cup tie on 29 October 2026 at 19:30. CSKA have won 8 of their last 10 home matches in the Russian Cup across different seasons and stages, and they've arrived at this derby in sharp form. On 14 October they hammered Rostov 4-0 at home in the cup, then beat Spartak 2-0 on 25 October. Lokomotiv, by contrast, have won just 2 of their last 10 official matches across all competitions. They lost 0-2 away to Rostov on 25 October and arrive in Moscow without momentum.

I won't call this a certainty. CSKA have failed to win 6 of their last 10 cup matches at home, and Lokomotiv showed they can score—they thrashed Fakels 5-0 away on 10 October and drew 3-3 with Krasnodar at home on 17 October. But CSKA's home record in the cup is the deciding factor. They know how to close out these matches on their own pitch, and that edge tips the balance in their favour.

Form and H2H

I look at CSKA's recent output and see a team that's hard to stop at home. They've scored more than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 home cup matches and conceded fewer than 1.2 per game on average over their last 10 outings. Their October run—3-1 over Arsenal on 4 October, 3-0 over Rodina on 11 October, then a 1-3 loss to Dynamo on 18 October—shows they can put the ball in the net consistently.

Lokomotiv's head-to-head record against CSKA is mixed. They've drawn twice (2-2 in November 2017, 1-1 in April 2019) and won twice (3-1 in July 2017, 1-0 in October 2018), but CSKA have also beaten them 1-0 in July 2019 and lost 1-2 in July 2020. I see no pattern that favours the visitors here. What matters more is that Lokomotiv have won only 2 of their last 10 matches in all competitions, and I expect that drought to continue on the road against a side that dominates at home in cup football.

Best bet

I'm taking CSKA Moscow win at 1 2.00 on 1xBet. The price reflects CSKA's home dominance in the cup—8 wins in 10 matches—and Lokomotiv's poor recent form. I rate CSKA's chances at around 49 percent without margin, so I'm comfortable with a price that sits just above that. Lokomotiv have injury concerns too: Zelimkhan Bakaev picked up a knock against Rostov, and defender Cesar Montes started that match on the bench with a training injury. I expect CSKA to exploit those gaps and take the tie.

Odds to watch

I'll monitor the totals closely. Over 2.5 sits at 1.81 and Under 2.5 at 2.06 on 1xBet. CSKA average 2.00 goals per game over their last 10 outings and Lokomotiv 1.40, so I'd lean toward the over, though it's not a strong conviction. Both Teams Score yes is priced at 1.65 and no at 2.13. Lokomotiv can score—they've shown that in October—so BTTS yes appeals to me as a secondary play. On the Asian Handicap, I see AH -0.25 home at 1.7 and away at 3.05. That -0.25 line essentially splits the difference between a draw and a CSKA win, and at 1.7 it's a tighter margin than the straight 1xBet win price, so I'll stick with the home win outright.