FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split Prediction

I'm backing under 3.5 goals here on 22 October 2026 at 22:00. Thun host Hajduk Split at Stockhorn Arena in the second round of the Europa Conference League, and I see a low-scoring affair. Both teams arrive with blunt attacking edges. Thun scored no more than two goals in 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitions and lost their Conference League opener 0-1 to Twente. Hajduk scored a maximum of two goals in 8 of their last 10 games. I'm not seeing the firepower for a four-goal night from either side.

Hajduk's discipline in defence is the key to my read. They held opponents to two goals or fewer in 9 of their last 10 matches. Thun struggle to generate consistent attacking threat at home. I expect Hajduk to control tempo and frustrate Thun's limited attacking options. The main risk is an early Hajduk goal forcing Thun to open up, but even accounting for that scenario, I see both teams staying compact and contained within the 3.5 line.

Form and H2H

Thun's domestic form is poor. They lost 2-4 away to Zurich in their last Swiss league match and sit 30th in the Conference League table with zero points and a 0-1 goal difference after round one. At home, I note they committed more than 13.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitions, suggesting they'll be under pressure and reactive rather than proactive.

Hajduk arrive as the sharper team. They've scored in 8 of their last 10 matches and beat Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 at home earlier this season. I'm concerned about their away record in European competition, though. Hajduk failed to win in 9 of their last 10 Conference League away games. Midfielder Marin Šotiček flagged the artificial pitch at Thun's ground as a potential rhythm disruptor for the visitors, but I still see Hajduk's defensive structure holding firm.

Best bet

I'm taking under 3.5 at 1xBet. The price reflects genuine value given both teams' recent output. Thun average 1.50 goals for and 1.80 against across their last 10. Hajduk average 2.00 goals for and 0.70 against. I'll take under 3.5 because I expect Hajduk to sit deep, control possession, and limit Thun to one goal or none. Even if Hajduk score twice, Thun's attacking limitations mean we stay under the line. At 1xBet, under 3.5 pays 2.32. I'm comfortable with that margin.

Odds to watch

I'm also eyeing the Asian handicap at -0.25 for Thun at 2.38 on 1xBet. That's a half-ball push, meaning if Thun draw or lose, the bet loses; if they win by any margin, it wins. Given Hajduk's away struggles and Thun's home record, I see value in backing the hosts to avoid defeat at that price, though my primary conviction is the under 3.5.

Both Teams Score no at 2.47 on 1xBet is worth a look as a secondary angle. Thun's attacking poverty and Hajduk's defensive discipline make a one-nil scoreline plausible. The home win at 2.8 on 1xBet prices Thun as underdogs, and I respect that, but I'm not confident enough in their attack to lean that way. My money stays on the under 3.5 line.