Groningen vs Ajax Prediction

I'm backing Groningen 2–2 Ajax on 18 October 2026 at 17:45. Groningen have won five of their last ten and are averaging 2.1 goals per home game, with Thom van Bergen in form at five goals for the season. They'll attack, and they should score. Ajax remain unbeaten in four league matches but have drawn their last two, against Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen. They're missing Steven Berghuis, Daley Blind, Caio Henrique and Kasper Dolberg, which matters. Away from home, though, Ajax average 3.75 goals per game—that's their edge. I see both sides finding the net and cancelling each other out.

Form and H2H

I'm looking at Groningen's last ten: five wins, three draws, two losses. Ajax have the same record, five wins, three draws, two losses, but their away form is sharper. In their head-to-head, I count one draw in 2013 at 1–1. Ajax won three of the other five meetings, Groningen one. The pattern doesn't scream dominance either way. What I do see is that both teams score regularly in recent fixtures, and Ajax's injury list—four players out—levels the pitch more than their away-goal average might suggest.

Best bet

I'm taking Groningen 2–2 Ajax as my main play. I'll also back Both Teams to Score at 1.35 on 1xBet because I'm confident both sides will breach the defence. Groningen average 2.1 at home, Ajax 3.75 away, and neither defence has been tight lately. I'm also interested in Over 2.5 at 1.32, which I think underprices a match where I expect four goals. The draw itself is worth considering at 4.17, given Ajax's recent form and their injury problems.

Odds to watch

I'm monitoring the Asian Handicap at –0.25 for Ajax at 1.59, which prices in a slight edge for the visitors despite their absences. The 1X2 shows Ajax at 1.91 to win, Groningen at 3.6, and the draw at 4.17. I think the draw is the value here. If I'm wrong on the exact scoreline, Both Teams to Score at 1.35 is my safety net—I'm confident that hits regardless of who wins.