Monaco vs SC Freiburg Prediction

I'm backing Over 2.5 goals here. Monaco host Freiburg on 22 October 2026 at 22:00, and I see a match built for goals. Monaco at home scored in 9 of their last 10 games across all competitions, and they found the net at least twice in 8 of those 10. Freiburg's away record is even sharper: Over 2.5 landed in 9 of their last 10 matches. The Germans break down defences regularly and scored more than once in 8 of those 10 outings. I'm not worried about Monaco's defensive frailty either—in 8 of their last 10 games, opponents failed to score more than one goal. When Monaco reliably puts away a goal at home and Freiburg consistently delivers three-goal matches on the road, three goals feels realistic.

Form and H2H

Monaco lost 0–1 to Lorient in their last Ligue 1 outing, conceding a penalty in the second half. At the Stade Louis II, though, I see a different team: they went unbeaten in 9 of their last 10 home matches across all competitions. Freiburg started their Conference League campaign with a 3–2 win over Jablonec and have not lost in 9 of their last 10 games overall. I'm impressed by their away form—in 8 of their last 10 road trips, matches saw three or more goals. Niklas Beste and Derry Scherhant returned from injury and played in Freiburg's previous match, sharpening their attacking edge.

Best bet

I'm taking Over 2.5 at 1.74 on 1xBet. The price reflects real value given both teams' attacking patterns. Monaco average 1.80 goals per game at home over their last 10, while Freiburg average 3.09 goals per game away. I'm also eyeing Both Teams Score at 1.57—Freiburg's 8-of-10 record of scoring more than one goal away, combined with Monaco's consistent home output, makes both sides finding the net a strong play.

Odds to watch

Monaco are favoured at 2.26 for a home win on 1xBet, with the draw at 3.61 and Freiburg at 3.15. I'll monitor the Asian Handicap -0.25 for Monaco at 1.94 as a tighter alternative to the straight win. Under 2.5 sits at 2.16 if the market shifts, though I expect goals. Both Teams Score No is 2.26 if you want to fade my main thesis.