NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction

I'm backing Nijmegen 2–2 Sittard on 18 October 2026 at 21:00. Nijmegen are chasing their third win of the season but have won just one of their last ten matches. They've conceded 2.3 goals per game in that run, and injuries to Mor, Nuytinck and Sandler have left their defence stretched. What catches my eye is their home record: both teams have scored in every recent match at the Goffert. Fortuna arrive in better shape—they drew 1–1 with Twente last time out and sit in the top half. Away from home, they average 1.67 goals per game, which gives me confidence they'll find the net against a leaky Nijmegen backline.

Form and H2H

I've studied the head-to-head record closely. In their last six meetings, Nijmegen and Fortuna have produced draws in three of them, including 1–1 twice and another 1–1 in May 2023. The scoreline I'm targeting has historical weight: Nijmegen won 3–2 in October 2022 and 2–3 in November 2018. I see a pattern of open, attacking football between these two. Nijmegen's last ten shows one win, four draws and five losses, averaging 0.99 goals for and 2.30 against. Fortuna's away form is sharper—six wins, two draws, two losses with 1.80 goals for and 1.70 against. My read is that Fortuna will trouble Nijmegen's defence while Nijmegen's attacking promise at home will breach Fortuna's backline.

Best bet

I'm taking Nijmegen 2–2 Sittard as my main play. Both teams have scored in every Nijmegen home match in the recent sample, and 72 per cent of their previous meetings went over 2.5 goals. Fortuna's limited expected goals output (0.95 against Twente) masks their away-day threat: they've averaged 1.67 goals per game on the road. I expect Nijmegen to score first at home but Fortuna to equalize and then both sides to find the net again. A draw with goals at both ends fits the pattern of their meetings and the underlying form. I'll also back Both Teams to Score, which I see as a near-certainty given the defensive frailties on both sides and the attacking intent both teams will carry into this match.

Odds to watch

I'm monitoring the Over 2.5 and Over 3.5 goals markets closely. Seventy-two per cent of Nijmegen versus Fortuna meetings have gone over 2.5, and I expect this trend to continue. I'd also track Both Teams to Score given the home record and Fortuna's away-game potency. The draw at 1xBet carries value given the H2H pattern and the current form of both sides. I'm not chasing the home win—Nijmegen's five-game winless run and defensive record make that a poor proposition. My edge lies in the goals and the draw, where history and current metrics align.