NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen Prediction

I'm backing Groningen to win 1-2 at Nijmegen on 25 October 2026 at 16:30. Nijmegen have stalled badly this season. They drew 2-2 with Fortuna Sittard last weekend and have now recorded three consecutive draws, which tells me their defensive shape has crumbled. Dusan Tadic, their star player, is out injured, and that removes a layer of control from their midfield. Willum Thor Willumsson scored a late equalizer against Fortuna and is pushing for minutes, but I don't see enough quality in their setup to stop what's coming.

Groningen lost 5-2 to Ajax, but I'm not reading that result as a collapse. Their matches have been open all season—eight of their nine league games have gone over 2.5 goals. They average 2.75 goals per away game and have both teams scoring in every recent away fixture. That's the profile of a team that attacks and creates chances, not one that's broken. Jeng, Mercera, and van der Laan are injured, but Groningen's attacking threat remains intact.

Form and H2H

I'm looking at Nijmegen's recent pattern and I see a team stuck in neutral. Three draws in a row means they're not winning games they should, and they're not losing them either. That's the worst position to be in against a visitor with Groningen's offensive intent. My concern for Nijmegen is that they lack the defensive discipline to handle Groningen's movement in the final third.

Groningen's away record is the key stat I'm using. They score 2.75 goals per road game and concede 2.00 per match on the road. I know they lost to Ajax, but that's one result. The consistency in their attacking output across nine league games—with eight featuring over 2.5 goals—tells me this is a team built to score multiple goals. Both teams have scored in 100% of their recent away matches, which reinforces my read that this fixture will be open.

Best bet

I'm taking Groningen to win at 2.79 on 1xBet. That's my main play. Nijmegen's three-game draw streak and missing Tadic give me confidence that Groningen's attacking players will find space. I'm also pairing this with Over 2.5 goals at 1.36, because I've seen eight of Groningen's nine league games go over that line and both teams scoring in every recent away match. The combination of Nijmegen's defensive vulnerability and Groningen's proven away output makes this the right price for me.

I'll also look at Both Teams Score yes at 1.36, which aligns with the pattern I've identified. Groningen concede 2.00 per away game, so Nijmegen will get chances. The question is whether they can finish them, and at 1.36 for both teams to score, I'm getting value on a market that's backed by actual data from this season.

Odds to watch

The 1xBet 1X2 line shows Nijmegen at 2.32, the draw at 3.96, and Groningen at 2.79. I'm taking the away win. If I want to hedge slightly, I can look at the Asian Handicap -0.25 for Nijmegen at 2.01, but I don't need it. My conviction is on Groningen straight.

Over 2.5 goals sits at 1.36 and Under 2.5 at 2.69. I'm on the over. Both Teams Score yes is 1.36 and no is 2.90. I'm backing yes. These prices reflect the market's uncertainty, but I'm reading the season's data more carefully than the odds suggest. Groningen's away performance and Nijmegen's recent form give me an edge at these levels.