Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City Prediction

I'm backing under 3.5 goals here. Nottingham Forest host Manchester City on 7 November 2026 at 20:30, and I see a low-scoring match despite City's attacking threat. Forest are 19th in the table and have not won at home all season. They've scored just six times in the league, the fewest of any club. City arrive as heavy favourites after beating RB Leipzig 3-2 in the Champions League on 4 November, but they've lost their last two Premier League games to Brighton and Aston Villa, so their defence is not watertight.

The key to my read is what I expect from both sides in this specific matchup. Forest's home record is dire for goals. In 9 of their last 10 home league matches, opponents combined to score a maximum of three goals. I don't see that pattern breaking here. City will dominate possession and create chances, but Forest's attacking poverty means I'm not expecting a shootout.

Form and H2H

Forest lost 0-2 away to Brentford in their last outing and fell 0-1 at home to Arsenal on 18 October. They've scored under 1.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 home league matches. That's not a fluke—it's their identity. In their last 10 league games, Forest averaged 0.7 goals per match while conceding 1.02 expected goals against. I don't expect them to suddenly find the net against City's defence.

City have conceded no more than one goal in 8 of their last 10 away league matches. Erling Haaland leads the league with nine goals, so City will score, but I'm forecasting they'll do it efficiently rather than in a deluge. In their last 10 league games, City averaged 2.1 goals and played in matches with a combined total of 3.3 goals. That's the ceiling I'm working with.

Best bet

I'm taking under 3.5 at 2.34 with 1xBet. The math is straightforward: Forest can't score at home, City don't leak goals on the road. Forest have managed under 1.5 goals in 9 of 10 home matches. City have held opponents to one goal or fewer in 8 of 10 away matches. When I add Forest's expected goals of 1.64 over their last 10 league games to City's typical away output, I land in the 2.5 to 3.0 range. Under 3.5 gives me a comfortable margin. I'm not betting both teams to score at 1.61—I think City win 1-0 or 2-0, which would be under 3.5 but not BTTS.

Odds to watch

City are 1.78 to win outright on 1xBet, which is fair given Forest's form, but I prefer the under 3.5 to avoid the defensive uncertainty City showed in their last two league losses. Over 2.5 sits at 1.7, under 2.5 at 2.34. I'd rather take the longer odds on under 3.5 at 2.34 than chase over 2.5. If you want to back City to win and keep it tight, Asian Handicap -0.75 is 1.91, which prices in a one-goal win or a clean sheet. Both Teams Score no is 2.2, which reflects my view that Forest will struggle to score, but the yes at 1.61 is tempting if you think City's recent defensive wobbles carry over.