Parma vs Bologna Prediction

I'm backing Bologna to win at Parma on 7 November 2026 at 20:00. Bologna's attack looks sharper than Parma's defence can handle. Over their last ten Serie A matches, Parma average just 0.78 xG and 0.8 goals per game while conceding 1.80 xG. That's a team bleeding chances. Bologna, meanwhile, scored twice against Monza on 31 October, four against Milan on 28 October, and two against Cagliari on 24 October. I see a visiting side with real cutting power meeting a host that has won only two of their last ten league games.

I won't ignore Parma's 3-0 win over Atalanta on 2 November, but that's one result against a pattern. Bologna have avoided defeat in six of their last ten Serie A matches. The underlying numbers favour the guests: Parma create little and concede plenty, while Bologna average 1.4 goals per game on 1.47 xG over their last ten outings. That gap is where my edge sits.

Form and H2H

Bologna arrive on a three-game winning streak. I watched them beat Monza 2-1 at home, then go to the San Siro and win 4-2 against Milan. That's the kind of form that travels. In eight of their last ten away matches in Serie A, the total goals stayed under 3.5, so I'm not expecting a shootout, but I am expecting Bologna to find the net.

Parma have lost or drawn eight of their last ten Serie A games. I note Adrian Bernabé is out with a muscle injury, which weakens their midfield. Bologna are missing Lorenzo De Silvvestri, Jay Eneme, and Emil Holm through various injuries, but their attacking spine remains intact. The form gap is real, and I'm pricing it in.

Best bet

I take Bologna win at 1.77 on 1xBet. The price reflects Bologna as clear favourites, and I agree with that assessment. Parma's defensive xG numbers are alarming—1.80 per game over ten matches—and Bologna have the firepower to punish that. I'm comfortable with the short odds because the underlying metrics support it. Bologna's last three results prove they can win away from home, and Parma's recent form is fragile despite one big scalp.

Odds to watch

I'll monitor the 1xBet totals. Over 2.5 sits at 2.13, Under 2.5 at 1.83. Given Parma's defensive leakiness and Bologna's goal-scoring form, I lean toward the Over, but eight of Bologna's last ten away matches stayed under 3.5 goals, so the game may not explode. Both Teams Score Yes is 1.95 and No is 1.78. I expect Bologna to score; the question is whether Parma can find the net. At 1.95 for BTTS Yes, I'd rather just back Bologna straight. The Asian Handicap -0.25 for Bologna at 1.48 is tight, reflecting how the market sees this: a clear favourite but not a certainty. I'll stick with the outright win.