SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction

I'm backing both teams to score when Paderborn host Stuttgart on 28 October 2026 at 20:00. Stuttgart won the Bundesliga meeting between these sides 2-0 just 18 days earlier at the same ground, but the cup rematch shapes up very differently. Paderborn have built real momentum since that defeat. They drew 2-2 away to Bremen and then beat Hamburg 1-0 at home with a mature performance where they controlled possession and created the clearer chances. I see them approaching this knockout tie with considerably more aggression than they showed in the league, especially now they've studied Stuttgart's system up close.

Stuttgart remain the stronger squad with superior individual quality, but I've noticed their defensive fragility in recent weeks. They lost 1-0 to Hamburg and then conceded three at home to Borussia Mönchengladbach despite taking an early lead. They've shipped goals in six of seven Bundesliga matches this season. I expect Paderborn to exploit that vulnerability with their physicality and attacking depth, while Stuttgart's offensive options under Hoeneß make it hard to imagine them staying quiet. A cup match that opens up early should only increase the chances of both sides finding the net.

Form and H2H

I'm looking at Paderborn's last ten matches: four wins, three draws, three losses with an average of 1.30 goals for and 1.30 against. That consistency masks their recent upward trajectory. The Hamburg win showed exactly what Kettemann's newly promoted side can do when they play with conviction at home. Stuttgart's last ten tell a different story for me. Five wins, one draw, four losses with 2.00 goals for and 0.90 against, but those numbers flatten out their recent stumble. Two straight Bundesliga defeats have shaken their form.

Head-to-head, Stuttgart have won all three previous DFB-Pokal meetings, including the 2-0 victory here on 10 October 2026. But I don't read too much into that league result for a cup tie. Paderborn have already seen Stuttgart's shape and pressing triggers. They know where the spaces open up. In a knockout match where Paderborn will commit more bodies forward, I expect Stuttgart to find those gaps and score. At the same time, Stuttgart's backline has shown it cannot withstand sustained pressure this season.

Best bet

I'm taking Both Teams to Score - Yes at 1.54. That price reflects the underlying dynamics perfectly. Paderborn have attacking options across the pitch: Steffen Tigges offers physicality, Rayan Philippe and Marvin Pieringer provide alternatives, and Santiago Castaneda has become dangerous in midfield. They'll create chances at home. Stuttgart have Ermedin Demirović, Deniz Undav, Chris Führich, Jamie Leweling and Bilal El Khannouss available to rotate through attack. I expect them to score as well. The real issue for Stuttgart is their defence, and I'm confident Paderborn will punish that weakness. At 1.54, I'm getting fair value on both sides finding the net.

Odds to watch

I'd also consider Over 2.5 at 1.42 if I wanted to lean into the open nature of this tie. Both teams have the attacking depth to create multiple chances, and Stuttgart's defensive record suggests Paderborn will get more than one opportunity to score. The Asian Handicap -0.25 for the home side sits at 4.5, which tells me the market respects Stuttgart's quality but acknowledges Paderborn's home advantage and recent form. If I thought Stuttgart would win comfortably, that price would be shorter. For a straight home win, 1xBet offers 5.47, which reflects how tight this matchup looks on paper despite Stuttgart's squad superiority.