AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva Prediction

I'm backing AZ Alkmaar to win with a -1.5 handicap on 15 October 2026 at 19:45. AZ are solid at home this season—three wins and a draw in the Eredivisie on their own pitch—and they need to bounce back after losing 2-0 away to Feyenoord and dropping their Europa League opener 1-0 to Sunderland. Hapoel Beer Sheva arrive without their supporters due to a stadium ban, which matters more than their recent domestic form suggests. I've watched their last few matches and their defence is leakier than the results show. Even in their 2-0 win over Ironi Tveria, Tveria created chances worth 1.77 xG and should have scored. AZ have the attacking tools to punish that kind of vulnerability.

Form and H2H

I'm looking at AZ's last ten games: seven wins, one draw, two losses, averaging 2.15 goals for and 0.92 against. That home record is the key stat here. Hapoel's record over the same stretch reads five wins, two draws, three losses, with 1.40 goals for and 1.49 against. I see a team that's tightened up defensively in recent weeks but still concedes chances at an alarming rate. AZ lost their grip on the Eredivisie lead after the international break, but at home they've been nearly untouchable. The head-to-head shows AZ beat Hapoel 2-1 in their first meeting this season.

Best bet

I'm taking AZ Alkmaar win with -1.5 handicap at 1.47 on 1xBet. I need them to win by two goals or more, and I think they will. AZ have won their last three home matches by at least two goals in several instances this season. Hapoel are without their fans and their defensive vulnerabilities are real, even if they've kept clean sheets in three straight league games. The handicap gives me a cushion if AZ win 1-0, which is the only scenario I lose. I'm confident enough in AZ's home form and Hapoel's structural weaknesses to take that price.

Odds to watch

I'll monitor the Both Teams Score market at 1.57 for yes and 2.28 for no. I'm leaning toward no—both teams have failed to score in their last few matches across all competitions. AZ have managed just one goal in their last three outings and lost their Europa League opener without scoring. Hapoel drew 0-0 with Dinamo Zagreb in their first group game and created almost nothing. The Over 2.5 sits at 1.39 and Under 2.5 at 2.7. I expect a low-scoring affair, so the under appeals to me more than the over, but my main conviction is the AZ -0.75 handicap at 1.47.