CONMEBOL Libertadores · Semi-finals

Fluminense vs Palmeiras Prediction

1 : 2FTWorld

Sports betting from our team of predictorsAiden Brooks

Aiden Brooks is a Liverpool-based sports journalist and lead writer for 1xBet. He follows all the world's sports news, specialising in detailed analysis of matches and tournaments. Proficient in sports betting, utilising a comprehensive approach to prediction. He is a passionate football fan and regularly covers Premier League matches. He also enjoys tennis and boxing, which helps him to create versatile content for the betting platform.

Created: 15 Oct 2026Updated: 15 Oct 2026, 20:35

Match preview

I'm backing Fluminense to win or draw this first Libertadores semifinal leg at the Maracanã on 15 October 2026 at 03:30. This is a two-legged tie, and the home side must extract maximum value before traveling to São Paulo for the return. Palmeiras will sit deep, control tempo, and accept a draw—they rarely make positional errors on their own ground. Fluminense has to dominate possession and dictate from the start, but they cannot afford a home loss that puts them in a critical situation for the second match.

I watched their August meeting in the Brazilian league. Fluminense held 60% possession, completed 421 passes at 90% accuracy against Palmeiras' 274, and fired 14 shots with seven on target. Ganso's distribution and Halka's ability to drive through the center broke Palmeiras' layered defense. Fluminense scored twice in the final minutes—Kevin Serna on 85 and Herman Kano on 90+2—proving they can press home an advantage. The Maracanã factor is real: Fluminense has not conceded a single goal at home in this Libertadores playoff run, beating Platense 2-0 and holding Independiente Rivadavia.

Fluminense vs Palmeiras Odds

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Bet
	3.01	2.85	2.79	Place a bet
Best odds	3.01	2.85	2.79
Average	3.01	2.85	2.79
Lowest odds	3.01	2.85	2.79

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1X2 prediction for Fluminense vs Palmeiras

Date and time 15 October 2026 at 01:30

1X222.7934%

DCX/268%

BTTSYes50%

1 32%X 34%2 34%

Palmeiras win

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Fluminense vs Palmeiras Odds statistic

Average rates from the last stored matches for each team.

FluminenseLast matchesPalmeiras

100%Over 0.5 goals80%

80%Over 1.5 goals60%

80%Over 2.5 goals40%

60%Over 3.5 goals40%

60%BTTS40%

60%Last 5 BTTS40%

Head to Head Fluminense — Palmeiras

In the last 8 meetings, Palmeiras hold the edge — 3 wins for Fluminense, 4 for Palmeiras, 1 draws.

38% W — 313% D — 150% W — 4

Fluminense1:2Palmeiras
CONMEBOL Libertadores · 15 Oct 2026
Fluminense3:2Palmeiras
Serie A · 15 Aug 2026
Palmeiras2:1Fluminense
Serie A · 26 Feb 2026
Palmeiras0:0Fluminense
Serie A · 23 Nov 2025
Fluminense1:2Palmeiras
Serie A · 23 Jul 2025
Palmeiras0:1Fluminense
Serie A · 08 Dec 2024
Fluminense1:0Palmeiras
Serie A · 25 Jul 2024
Palmeiras1:0Fluminense
Serie A · 03 Dec 2023

88%Over 0.588%

50%Over 1.550%

50%Over 2.550%

50%BTTS50%

75%Fluminense over 0.563%

Betting profits Fluminense vs Palmeiras

Historical P/L if you backed each side on the main markets in their recent matches.

Fluminense

Market	Outcome	P/L	Wins	Games
Match Winner	Win	-1.00	6	15
Match Winner	Draw	+1.00	5	15
Match Winner	Lose	-4.51	4	15
Goals Over/Under	Over 1.5	+0.80	11	15
Goals Over/Under	Under 1.5	-2.34	4	15
Goals Over/Under	Over 2	+1.83	11	15
Goals Over/Under	Under 2	-2.51	7	15
Goals Over/Under	Over 2.5	+3.63	8	15
Goals Over/Under	Under 2.5	-3.28	7	15
Goals Over/Under	Over 3.5	+10.01	6	15
Goals Over/Under	Under 3.5	-3.87	9	15
Goals Over/Under	Over 0.5	-0.40	5	6
Goals Over/Under	Under 0.5	+1.20	1	6
Goals Over/Under	Over 3	-0.66	2	4
Goals Over/Under	Under 3	+0.08	3	4
Goals Over/Under	Over 4.5	-4.00	0	4
Goals Over/Under	Under 4.5	+0.50	4	4

Palmeiras

Market	Outcome	P/L	Wins	Games
Match Winner	Win	-3.82	7	15
Match Winner	Draw	+7.16	6	15
Match Winner	Lose	-9.41	2	15
Goals Over/Under	Over 1.5	-3.94	8	15
Goals Over/Under	Under 1.5	+11.05	7	15
Goals Over/Under	Over 2	-2.73	8	14
Goals Over/Under	Under 2	+4.99	9	14
Goals Over/Under	Over 2.5	-3.77	5	15
Goals Over/Under	Under 2.5	+3.77	10	15
Goals Over/Under	Over 3	-5.37	3	12
Goals Over/Under	Under 3	+2.82	10	12
Goals Over/Under	Over 3.5	+1.73	4	15
Goals Over/Under	Under 3.5	-0.41	11	15
Goals Over/Under	Over 4.5	+3.63	2	11
Goals Over/Under	Under 4.5	-0.83	9	11
Goals Over/Under	Over 0.5	+0.21	2	2
Goals Over/Under	Under 0.5	-2.00	0	2

Match statistics

7070%Possession %30%30

0.5230%Expected goals70%1.19

1161%Total shots39%7

338%Shots on target63%5

675%Shots off target25%2

00%Big chances100%2

6100%Corners0%0

939%Fouls61%14

125%Yellow cards75%3

00%Red cards0%0

80970%Passes30%354

73072%Accurate passes28%280

360%Saves40%2

250%Offsides50%2

Key events

45'
Goal J. López
Palmeiras
45'
Substitution Martinelli (→ Hércules)
Fluminense
49'
Yellow card A. Barboza
Palmeiras
63'
Substitution A. Canobbio (→ K. Serna)
Fluminense
74'
Substitution Andreas Pereira (→ Maurício)
Palmeiras
74'
Substitution J. López (→ R. Sosa)
Palmeiras
74'
Substitution J. Arias (→ Felipe Anderson)
Palmeiras
78'
Substitution PH Ganso (→ L. Acosta)
Fluminense
78'
Substitution Hulk (→ R. Castillo)
Fluminense
84'
Substitution J. Savarino (→ Wesley Nata)
Fluminense
85'
Goal Marlon Freitas
Palmeiras
90+3'
Goal Wesley Nata
Fluminense
90+6'
Yellow card A. Giay
Palmeiras
90+6'
Yellow card Maurício
Palmeiras
90+6'
Yellow card Nonato
Fluminense

Last matches Fluminense

In the last 5 matches Fluminense have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses. BTTS landed in 60% of those games.

40% W — 20% D — 060% L — 3

Flamengo1:0Fluminense
LSerie A · 11 Oct 2026
Fluminense4:0Coritiba
WSerie A · 09 Oct 2026
Corinthians1:3Fluminense
WSerie A · 20 Sept 2026
Platense2:1Fluminense
LCONMEBOL Libertadores · 15 Sept 2026
Atletico-MG3:1Fluminense
LSerie A · 12 Sept 2026

Statistics for the last 5 games

Matches: 5
Wins: 2
Draws: 0
Losses: 3
Goals / game: 1.8
Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 80%
BTTS: 60%

Last matches Palmeiras

Palmeiras are in a strong run: 3 wins in the last 5 matches, scoring 1.8 goals per game.

60% W — 320% D — 120% L — 1

Palmeiras4:1Corinthians
WSerie A · 11 Oct 2026
Palmeiras1:0Bahia
WSerie A · 09 Oct 2026
Gremio0:0Palmeiras
DSerie A · 20 Sept 2026
LDU de Quito3:2Palmeiras
LCONMEBOL Libertadores · 16 Sept 2026
Palmeiras2:0Sao Paulo
WSerie A · 12 Sept 2026

Statistics for the last 5 games

Matches: 5
Wins: 3
Draws: 1
Losses: 1
Goals / game: 1.8
Over 1.5: 60%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 40%

Fluminense vs Palmeiras Standings

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	Diff	Pts
1	Flamengo	6	5	1	0	14-2	12	16
2	Estudiantes L.P.	6	2	3	1	6-5	1	9
3	Independiente Medellin	6	2	1	3	6-11	-5	7
4	Cusco	6	0	1	5	4-12	-8	1
1	Coquimbo Unido	6	3	1	2	8-6	2	10
2	Deportes Tolima	6	2	2	2	7-6	1	8
3	Club Nacional	6	2	2	2	7-9	-2	8
4	Universitario	6	1	3	2	5-6	-1	6
1	Independ. Rivadavia	6	5	1	0	15-6	9	16
2	Fluminense	6	2	2	2	7-7	0	8
3	Bolívar	6	1	2	3	6-8	-2	5
4	Deportivo La Guaira	6	0	3	3	6-13	-7	3
1	U. Catolica	6	4	1	1	8-4	4	13
2	Cruzeiro	6	3	2	1	8-3	5	11
3	Boca Juniors	6	2	1	3	6-5	1	7
4	Barcelona SC	6	1	0	5	2-12	-10	3
1	Corinthians	6	3	2	1	8-4	4	11
2	Platense	6	3	1	2	8-7	1	10
3	Santa Fe	6	2	2	2	6-7	-1	8
4	Penarol	6	0	3	3	4-8	-4	3
1	Cerro Porteno	6	4	1	1	6-2	4	13
2	Palmeiras	6	3	2	1	10-5	5	11
3	Sporting Cristal	6	2	0	4	6-9	-3	6
4	Junior	6	1	1	4	5-11	-6	4
1	LDU de Quito	6	4	0	2	8-5	3	12
2	Mirassol	6	4	0	2	7-4	3	12
3	Lanus	6	3	0	3	3-7	-4	9
4	Always Ready	6	1	0	5	7-9	-2	3
1	Independiente del Valle	6	4	1	1	11-6	5	13
2	Rosario Central	6	4	1	1	9-1	8	13
3	UCV	6	3	0	3	7-11	-4	9
4	Libertad Asuncion	6	0	0	6	4-13	-9	0