HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax Prediction

I'm backing over 2.5 goals here. Hajduk Split host Ajax on 15 October 2026 at 19:45, and I see two teams built to attack in open play. Hajduk scored in 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitions and hit over 2.5 in 8 of 10. Ajax are even more aggressive—they posted over 3.5 in 9 of their last 10 games everywhere and average over three goals per match in European competition. I know Hajduk will miss their main striker and Ajax are without Doljberg, but the structural commitment to forward play from both sides should override those absences. When I see two teams this intent on creating chances in a Conference League opener, three goals feels like the floor, not the ceiling.

Form and H2H

Hajduk arrive in excellent domestic form. I watched them beat Zagreb Dinamo 2:1 recently in difficult conditions and they've won 7 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.1 goals for and just 0.9 against. At home in Conference League, I see their opponents have managed fewer than 4.5 shots on target in 9 of 10 outings, which tells me Hajduk's defence is compact and organised. Ajax come off a 1:1 draw with NEK but their underlying numbers are sharper. I count 6 straight Conference League matches with over 2.5 for them, and in 8 of their last 10 European games they've scored more than 3.5 goals. Ajax won 5 of their last 10 matches and drew 4, so they arrive unbeaten in 9 of 10 Conference League games. The away form gap works against Hajduk—I see they've won none of their last 9 Conference League road trips.

Best bet

I'm taking over 2.5 at 1.46 on 1xBet. I'll take that price because the underlying pattern is too strong to ignore. Hajduk scored in 9 of 10 recent matches and over 2.5 landed in 80 per cent of their games. Ajax hit over 3.5 in 9 of 10 and have posted over 2.5 in 6 straight Conference League matches. I'm not betting on a thriller—I'm betting on two teams with a clear attacking identity meeting in a competition where they both play to their strengths. The odds reflect some caution about the group-stage opener, but I see the value in backing the trend that's held through both teams' recent schedules.

Odds to watch

I'll monitor both teams to score at 1.53 on 1xBet. Hajduk scored in 9 of 10 recent matches and Ajax concede regularly, so I expect the home side to find the net. Ajax's individual total over 1.5 sits at 1.50, which I rate fairly given their 9-of-10 record posting over 3.5 in all competitions. If I want to shade towards a home win, I see Hajduk at 4.82 on 1xBet, though I'm more comfortable with the total. The draw is 4.35 and Ajax are 1.67 favourites, which prices in their European pedigree and Hajduk's poor away record in this competition. I'll stick with over 2.5 as my main play.